UCLA Voting Rights Project Article Links Racial Attitudes to Support for January 6th Insurrection: Racial Antipathy, Not Just Partisanship, Drives Belief in Voter Fraud

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Contact: Alberto Lammers, alammers@luskin.ucla.edu

UCLA Voting Rights Project Article Links Racial Attitudes to Support for January 6th Insurrection: Racial Antipathy, Not Just Partisanship, Drives Belief in Voter Fraud

LOS ANGELES (February 24, 2025) — A new article in the Journal of Race, Ethnicity and Politics – the official journal of the American Political Science Association section on Race, Ethnicity, and Politics – authored by UCLA Voting Rights Project scholars Dr. Tye Rush, Dr. Chelsea Jones, Michael Herndon, and Dr. Matt Barreto, is the first published study to document with statistical analysis that white Americans belief in voter fraud was not based on actual election fears, but rather was driven by negative views towards minorities. Specifically, data from three surveys of more than 8,000 White respondents reveals that racial antipathy, a strong feeling of dislike toward racial minority groups—played a pivotal role in shaping beliefs about voter fraud and belief that the January 6, 2021 insurrection was justified.

The new study challenges conventional explanations for the insurrection, suggesting that while partisan loyalty and allegiance to Donald Trump did play a role, it was white Americans’ racial attitudes—particularly their negative views towards Blacks, Latinos and Asians—that provided the foundation of their belief in voter fraud and support of the violent January 6th Capitol assault.

Drawing on data from the 2020 American National Election Study (ANES) pre and post-election survey, and the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS) implemented after the insurrection, the authors argue that perceptions of voter fraud were not just a reaction to Trump’s defeat but were inextricably linked to racial anxieties about the changing demographic landscape of the United States and white Americans negative views towards minorities. Included in the findings of the study:

Before the 2020 election: White Americans with higher racial antipathy actually exhibited greater trust in the election process compared to those with lower racial antipathy, perhaps because they were confident Trump was going to win.
After the 2020 election results were declared: White Americans with higher racial antipathy reported a sharp decline in trust, believing the election had been “stolen,” which was reflected in post-election polling data.
Post-January 6 Insurrection: White Americans with higher racial antipathy were more likely to believe in widespread voter fraud and to justify Trump’s efforts to challenge the election results.

The study also ties the belief in voter fraud to the widespread adoption of white replacement theory—the idea that racial minorities are “replacing” white Americans in political and social power. This belief was a significant motivator for both supporting the insurrection and ongoing political polarization.

“Our research reveals that belief in voter fraud and support for the January 6th insurrection were not simply reactions to political loss or partisanship,” said Dr. Rush, lead author of the article, who earned his Ph.D. in 2023 from UCLA. “They were deeply influenced by racial attitudes—specifically, fear of racial minorities gaining political power. The increasing political visibility of Black, Latino, and Asian communities has triggered significant racial anxieties that directly fueled support for those who attempted to disrupt the certification of the election results.”

The study reveals that white Americans with high levels of racial antipathy were more likely to believe in the false claims of voter fraud, even though no evidence substantiated those allegations. Following the confirmation of the election results, this group’s trust in the electoral process sharply decreased, and they became more inclined to support efforts to challenge the legitimacy of the election outcome. The study controls for the effects of other relevant factors such as Republican partisanship, degree of Trump favorability, watching Fox News, and much more. Beyond these important factors, this study is the first to document an independent and statistically significant influence of negative racial attitudes as associated with views of voter fraud and belief the insurrection was justified.

“This study contributes to a growing body of research that underscores the role of race in shaping political behavior in the U.S.,” said Dr. Barreto, co-author of the study and faculty director of the UCLA Voting Rights Project. “It is unfortunate that belief in voter fraud is correlated with racial antipathy among whites, and has contributed to skepticism about election integrity and the justification of the insurrection. Our research is based directly on what white Americans told us, we are relying on their answers to survey questions, and the statistical association between racist views and belief the insurrection was justified is undeniable.”

Dr. Rush concluded, “Our study highlights an urgent issue in contemporary American politics. If we do not address the racialized perceptions that underlie many of these political behaviors, we risk undermining trust in democratic institutions and perpetuating political violence. Understanding the link between racial attitudes and support for the insurrection is key to moving forward as a nation. It is our sincere hope that the President will do more to convince the public that all Americans deserve equal voting rights and that widespread voter fraud is a myth.”

Read the full article here.

ABOUT THE UCLA VOTING RIGHTS PROJECT

The UCLA Voting Rights Project was established to protect equal voting rights for all Americans through strategic litigation, social science research and policy advocacy. The VRP seeks to ensure that all individuals are afforded equal access to the electoral process and representation in governance. For more information about the UCLA Voting Rights Project, please visit vrp.ucla.edu