California Voter’s Choice Act: Utilizing Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) on the 2021 Recall Election Voter File

By the UCLA Voting Rights Project in partnership with the California Secretary of State Office

The 2021 California Gubernatorial Recall Election statewide began in August 2021 and concluded on September 14, 2021. The result⎯California voters chose not to recall Governor Gavin Newsom.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of voter registration and turnout in the 15 Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) counties during the September 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election. The purpose of this analysis is to report patterns by voter characteristics for all California voters. We evaluated the statewide voter file by race and ethnicity, age, primary language, and residence on a Native American reservation. Throughout our analysis, we divide race into five categories: White, Black, Latino, Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI), and Other. These racial groups are similar to those used in the 2020 U.S. Census data and self-reported race in the voter files. The major difference is that American Indian/Alaska Native and multi-racial individuals are included with Other due to the very small size in most VCA counties.

Throughout this report, we discuss the difference in turnout between racial/ethnic groups, commonly referred to as “the racial turnout gap” by political science scholars. Communities of color experience lower rates of registration and voting than white, non-Hispanics. This trend is attributed to a long-standing history of exclusion and discrimination, significant differences in socioeconomic status, and lower rates of voter outreach by candidates. The racial turnout gap is not unique to California’s electoral system. This phenomenon can also be observed in states such as Colorado. Colorado, where voters primarily cast their ballots via mail, reports a turnout gap between voters of different racial/ethnic groups. During the 2020 General Election in Colorado, there was an 18.8-point turnout gap between White non-Hispanic voters and voters who identified as Black, Latino, AAPI, and/or Indigenous.

In California there was a turnout gap of 9.8 points between White non-Hispanic voters and Latino voters. The voter turnout gaps between White non-Hispanic voters and Black and AAPI voters were 5.2 points and 4.3 points respectively.

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Contributors: Matthew Barreto, Lorrie Frasure, Michael Rios, Sonni Waknin, Vivian Alejandre, Joshua Abrams, Sebastian Cazares & Diego Casillas