UCLA VRP Analysis of August 2025 Texas Redistricting Map

Statistical models show Hispanic and Black voters are unified in their candidates of choice
But new maps place minority voters in districts where Whites bloc-vote against their candidates

LOS ANGELES (August 19, 2025) — Today the UCLA Voting Rights Project (VRP) data science team released a new analysis of the current Texas redistricting proposal (C2333) examining how Black, Hispanic, and White communities vote and which candidates they support in the new Congressional district boundaries.

Federal law prohibits purposefully drawing large minority populations of Black and Hispanic voters into districts in which their preferred candidate loses. Before passing majority-minority or majority-influence districts, it is important for map drawers to properly assess how Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites votes, to determine if there is racially polarized voting.

The report was authored by VRP Senior Data Scientist Michael Rios and VRP Data Science Fellow Emma Kim. Both Mr. Rios and Ms. Kim have previously authored, co-authored, or assisted with expert reports in voting rights litigation in Texas.

Download the PDF Report Here

ABOUT THE UCLA VOTING RIGHTS PROJECT

The UCLA Voting Rights Project is the marquee advocacy project of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles and is focused on voting rights litigation, research, policy, and training. The UCLA Voting Rights Project addresses monumental and overlooked gaps in the field of voting rights: how to train young lawyers and researchers, support the development of new legal and methodological theories for voting rights cases, and how to advance policy work to ensure that there is a new generation of leaders who are pursuing efforts to guarantee all citizens have equal and fair access to our democracy. The project was founded by Chad W. Dunn, J.D., and Matt Barreto, Ph.D. The UCLA Voting Rights Project is located within the Luskin School of Public Affairs.
To learn more about the UCLA Voting Rights Project, please visit: vrp.ucla.edu